---
name: check-c7376ef069ed
description: "Full Reality Check analysis - fetch source, perform 3-stage analysis, extract claims, register to database, and validate. The flagship command for rigorous source analysis."
---

<!-- GENERATED FILE - DO NOT EDIT DIRECTLY -->
<!-- Source: integrations/_templates/ + _config/skills.yaml -->
<!-- Regenerate: make assemble-skills -->

# Full Analysis Workflow (Codex)

Full Reality Check analysis - fetch source, perform 3-stage analysis, extract claims, register to database, and validate. The flagship command for rigorous source analysis.

## Invocation

```
$check <url>
```

Note: Codex reserves `/...` for built-in commands. Use `$check` instead.

The flagship Reality Check command for rigorous source analysis.

## Prerequisites

### Environment

Set `REALITYCHECK_DATA` to point to your data repository:

```bash
export REALITYCHECK_DATA=/path/to/realitycheck-data/data/realitycheck.lance
```

The `PROJECT_ROOT` is derived from this path - all analysis files go there.

### Red Flags: Wrong Repository

**IMPORTANT**: Always write to the DATA repository, never to the framework repository.

If you see these directories, you're in the **framework** repo (wrong place for data):
- `scripts/`
- `tests/`
- `integrations/`
- `methodology/`

Stop and verify `REALITYCHECK_DATA` is set correctly.

### Data Source of Truth

**LanceDB is the source of truth**, not YAML files.

- Query sources: `rc-db source get <id>` or `rc-db source list`
- Query claims: `rc-db claim get <id>` or `rc-db claim list`
- Search: `rc-db search "query"`

**Ignore YAML files** like `claims/registry.yaml` or `reference/sources.yaml` - these are exports/legacy format.

## Workflow Steps

1. **Fetch** - Retrieve and parse source content
   - Primary: `WebFetch` for most URLs
   - Alternative: `curl -L -sS "URL" | rc-html-extract - --format json`
   - `rc-html-extract` returns structured `{title, published, text, headings, word_count}`
   - Use the extract tool when you need clean metadata or main text extraction
2. **Metadata** - Extract title, author, date, type, generate source-id
3. **Stage 1: Descriptive** - Neutral summary, key claims, argument structure
4. **Stage 2: Evaluative** - Evidence quality, fact-checking, disconfirming evidence
5. **Stage 3: Dialectical** - Steelman, counterarguments, synthesis
6. **Extract** - Format claims as YAML
7. **Register** - Add source and claims to database
8. **Validate** - Run integrity checks
9. **README** - Update data project analysis index
10. **Commit** - Stage and commit changes to data repo
11. **Push** - Push to remote
12. **Report** - Generate summary

---

## Analysis Output Contract

Every analysis must produce a **human-auditable analysis** file at:
`PROJECT_ROOT/analysis/sources/<source-id>.md`

The analysis **must** include:

1. **Metadata** (Source ID, URL, author, date/type)
2. **Legends** (top-of-file quick reference)
3. **Three-stage analysis** (Stages 1-3)
4. **Claim tables with evidence + credence**
5. **Extracted claims artifact** (embedded YAML or separate file)

If an analysis lacks claim tables (IDs, evidence levels, credence) it is **not complete**.

### Required Elements

**Stage 1 (Descriptive)**:
- Source Metadata table
- Core Thesis (1-3 sentences)
- Key Claims table (with Verified? and Falsifiable By columns)
- Argument Structure diagram
- Theoretical Lineage
- Scope & Limitations

**Stage 2 (Evaluative)**:
- Key Factual Claims Verified (with Crux? column)
- Disconfirming Evidence Search
- Internal Tensions / Self-Contradictions
- Persuasion Techniques
- Unstated Assumptions
- Evidence Assessment
- Credence Assessment

**Stage 3 (Dialectical)**:
- Steelmanned Argument
- Strongest Counterarguments
- Supporting Theories (with source IDs)
- Contradicting Theories (with source IDs)
- Synthesis Notes
- Claims to Cross-Reference

**End**:
- Claim Summary table (all claims)
- Claims to Register (YAML)
- Credence in Analysis (0.0-1.0)

---

## Analysis Template

Use this structure for analysis documents:

```markdown
# Source Analysis: [Title]

> **Claim types**: `[F]` fact, `[T]` theory, `[H]` hypothesis, `[P]` prediction, `[A]` assumption, `[C]` counterfactual, `[S]` speculation, `[X]` contradiction
> **Evidence**: **E1** systematic review/meta-analysis; **E2** peer-reviewed/official stats; **E3** expert consensus/preprint; **E4** credible journalism/industry; **E5** opinion/anecdote; **E6** unsupported/speculative

## Metadata

| Field | Value |
|-------|-------|
| **Source ID** | [author-year-shorttitle] |
| **Title** | [extracted from source] |
| **Author(s)** | [name(s)] |
| **Date** | [YYYY-MM-DD or YYYY] |
| **Type** | [PAPER/ARTICLE/BLOG/REPORT/INTERVIEW/etc.] |
| **URL** | [source URL] |
| **Reliability** | [0.0-1.0] |
| **Rigor Level** | [SPITBALL/DRAFT/REVIEWED/CANONICAL] |

## Stage 1: Descriptive Analysis

### Core Thesis
[1-3 sentence summary of main argument]

### Key Claims

| # | Claim | Claim ID | Type | Domain | Evid | Credence | Verified? | Falsifiable By |
|---|-------|----------|------|--------|------|----------|-----------|----------------|
| 1 | [claim text] | DOMAIN-YYYY-NNN | [F/T/H/P/A/C/S/X] | DOMAIN | E1-E6 | 0.00-1.00 | [source or ?] | [what would refute] |
| 2 | | | | | | | | |
| 3 | | | | | | | | |

**Column guide**:
- **Claim**: Concise statement of the claim
- **Claim ID**: Format `DOMAIN-YYYY-NNN` (e.g., TECH-2026-001)
- **Type**: `[F]` fact, `[T]` theory, `[H]` hypothesis, `[P]` prediction, `[A]` assumption, `[C]` counterfactual, `[S]` speculation, `[X]` contradiction
- **Domain**: Primary domain code (TECH/LABOR/ECON/GOV/SOC/RESOURCE/TRANS/GEO/INST/RISK/META)
- **Evid**: Evidence level E1-E6
- **Credence**: Probability estimate 0.00-1.00
- **Verified?**: Source reference if verified, `?` if unverified
- **Falsifiable By**: What evidence would refute this claim

### Argument Structure

[Is this a chain argument? What's the logical flow?]

```
[Claim A]
    | implies
    v
[Claim B]
    | requires
    v
[Claim C]
    | leads to
    v
[Conclusion]
```

**Chain Analysis** (if applicable):
- **Weakest Link**: [Which step?]
- **Why Weak**: [Explanation]
- **If Link Breaks**: [What happens to conclusion?]
- **Alternative Paths**: [Can conclusion be reached differently?]

### Theoretical Lineage

[What traditions/thinkers does this build on?]

- **Primary influences**: [List key thinkers, schools of thought]
- **Builds on**: [Specific theories or frameworks this extends]
- **Departs from**: [Where this diverges from its intellectual predecessors]
- **Novel contributions**: [What's genuinely new here]

### Scope & Limitations
[What does this source attempt to explain? What does it explicitly not address?]

## Stage 2: Evaluative Analysis

### Internal Coherence
[Does the argument follow logically? Any contradictions?]

### Key Factual Claims Verified

> **Requirement**: Must include >=1 **crux claim** (central to thesis), not just peripheral numerics.

| Claim (paraphrased) | Crux? | Source Says | Actual | External Source | Status |
|---------------------|-------|-------------|--------|-----------------|--------|
| [e.g., "China makes 50% of X"] | N | [assertion] | [verified value] | [URL/ref] | ok / x / ? |
| [e.g., "Elite consensus on Y"] | **Y** | [assertion] | [verified or ?] | [URL/ref] | ok / x / ? |

**Column guide**:
- **Claim**: Paraphrased factual claim from the source
- **Crux?**: Is this claim central to the argument? Mark crux claims with **Y**
- **Source Says**: What the source asserts
- **Actual**: What verification found (or `?` if unverified)
- **External Source**: URL or reference used for verification
- **Status**: `ok` = verified, `x` = refuted, `?` = unverified

### Disconfirming Evidence Search

> For top 2-3 claims, actively search for counterevidence or alternative explanations (even 5 min changes behavior).

| Claim | Counterevidence Found | Alternative Explanation | Search Notes |
|-------|----------------------|-------------------------|--------------|
| [top claim 1] | [what contradicts it, or "none found"] | [other way to explain the data] | [what you searched] |
| [top claim 2] | [what contradicts it, or "none found"] | [other way to explain the data] | [what you searched] |
| [top claim 3] | [what contradicts it, or "none found"] | [other way to explain the data] | [what you searched] |

**Purpose**: Combat confirmation bias by explicitly searching for evidence against the source's claims.

### Internal Tensions / Self-Contradictions

| Tension | Parts in Conflict | Implication |
|---------|-------------------|-------------|
| [description of tension] | [Premise A] vs [Conclusion B] | [what it means for validity] |
| | | |

**Purpose**: Identify logical inconsistencies within the source's own argument.

### Persuasion Techniques

| Technique | Example from Source | Effect on Reader |
|-----------|---------------------|------------------|
| [e.g., Composition fallacy] | [quote or paraphrase] | [how it biases interpretation] |
| [e.g., Appeal to authority] | [quote or paraphrase] | [how it biases interpretation] |
| | | |

**Common techniques to watch for**:
- Composition/division fallacies
- Appeal to authority/emotion
- Cherry-picking data
- Motte-and-bailey
- Strawmanning alternatives
- False dichotomies
- Weasel words / hedging
- Anchoring with extreme examples

### Unstated Assumptions

| Assumption | Claim ID | Critical? | Problematic? |
|------------|----------|-----------|--------------|
| [assumption text] | [which claim depends on this] | Y/N | Y/N |
| | | | |

**Column guide**:
- **Assumption**: The unstated premise underlying the argument
- **Claim ID**: Which claim(s) depend on this assumption
- **Critical?**: Would the argument fail if this assumption is false?
- **Problematic?**: Is this assumption questionable or likely false?

**Purpose**: Surface hidden premises that may not be shared by all readers.

### Evidence Assessment
[Quality and relevance of supporting evidence]

### Credence Assessment
- **Overall Credence**: [0.0-1.0]
- **Reasoning**: [why this level?]

## Stage 3: Dialectical Analysis

### Steelmanned Argument
[Strongest possible version of this position]

### Strongest Counterarguments
1. [Counter + source if available]
2. [Counter + source if available]

### Supporting Theories

| Theory/Framework | Source ID | How It Supports |
|------------------|-----------|-----------------|
| [theory name] | [source-id] | [brief explanation of alignment] |
| | | |

### Contradicting Theories

| Theory/Framework | Source ID | Point of Conflict |
|------------------|-----------|-------------------|
| [theory name] | [source-id] | [brief explanation of conflict] |
| | | |

**Purpose**: Place this source in the broader theoretical landscape. Link to existing analyses where available.

### Synthesis Notes
[How does this update our overall understanding?]

### Claims to Cross-Reference
[Which claims should be checked against other sources?]

---

### Claim Summary

| ID | Type | Domain | Evidence | Credence | Claim |
|----|------|--------|----------|----------|-------|
| DOMAIN-YYYY-NNN | [F/T/H/P/A/C/S/X] | DOMAIN | E1-E6 | 0.00 | [claim text] |

**Notes**:
- All claims extracted from the source should appear in this table
- Use this for the complete claim inventory
- Key Claims table (above) highlights the most significant claims with additional columns

### Claims to Register

\`\`\`yaml
claims:
  - id: "DOMAIN-YYYY-NNN"
    text: "[Precise claim statement]"
    type: "[F/T/H/P/A/C/S/X]"
    domain: "[DOMAIN]"
    evidence_level: "E[1-6]"
    credence: 0.XX
    operationalization: "[How to test/measure this claim]"
    assumptions: ["..."]
    falsifiers: ["What would refute this"]
    source_ids: ["[source-id]"]
\`\`\`

---

**Analysis Date**: [YYYY-MM-DD]
**Analyst**: [human/claude/gpt/etc.]
**Credence in Analysis**: [0.0-1.0]

**Credence Reasoning**:
- [Why this credence level?]
- [What would increase/decrease credence?]
- [Key uncertainties remaining]
```

---

## Evidence Hierarchy

Use this hierarchy to rate **strength of evidential support** for claims.

| Level | Strength | Description | Credence Range |
|-------|----------|-------------|----------------|
| **E1** | Strong Empirical | Systematic review, meta-analysis, replicated experiments | 0.9-1.0 |
| **E2** | Moderate Empirical | Single peer-reviewed study, official statistics | 0.6-0.8 |
| **E3** | Strong Theoretical | Expert consensus, working papers, preprints | 0.5-0.7 |
| **E4** | Weak Theoretical | Industry reports, credible journalism | 0.3-0.5 |
| **E5** | Opinion/Forecast | Personal observation, anecdote, expert opinion | 0.2-0.4 |
| **E6** | Unsupported | Pure speculation, unfalsifiable claims | 0.0-0.2 |

## Claim Types

| Type | Symbol | Definition |
|------|--------|------------|
| Fact | `[F]` | Empirically verified, consensus reality |
| Theory | `[T]` | Coherent explanatory framework with empirical support |
| Hypothesis | `[H]` | Testable proposition, awaiting evidence |
| Prediction | `[P]` | Future-oriented claim with specified conditions |
| Assumption | `[A]` | Underlying premise (stated or unstated) |
| Counterfactual | `[C]` | Alternative scenario for comparison |
| Speculation | `[S]` | Unfalsifiable or untestable claim |
| Contradiction | `[X]` | Identified logical inconsistency |

## Domain Codes

| Code | Description |
|------|-------------|
| TECH | Technology, AI capabilities, tech trajectories |
| LABOR | Employment, automation, human work |
| ECON | Value theory, pricing, distribution, ownership |
| GOV | Governance, policy, regulation |
| SOC | Social structures, culture, behavior |
| RESOURCE | Scarcity, abundance, allocation |
| TRANS | Transition dynamics, pathways |
| GEO | International relations, state competition |
| INST | Institutions, organizations |
| RISK | Risk assessment, failure modes |
| META | Claims about the framework/analysis itself |

## Credence Calibration

To maintain well-calibrated credence:

| Range | Interpretation |
|-------|----------------|
| 0.9-1.0 | Would bet significant resources; very strong evidence |
| 0.7-0.8 | High credence but acknowledge meaningful uncertainty |
| 0.5-0.6 | Genuine uncertainty; could go either way |
| 0.3-0.4 | Lean against but not high credence |
| 0.1-0.2 | Strongly doubt but can't rule out |
| 0.0-0.1 | Would bet heavily against; extraordinary evidence needed |

**Aggregation notes**:
- A theory with many 0.7 credence claims is not itself 0.7 credence
- Credence in overall theory depends on logical structure and weakest critical links
- Chain arguments: overall credence <= weakest link
- Explicitly model dependencies when possible

---

## Database Commands

Use installed commands if available, otherwise fall back to uv:

```bash
# Check database stats
rc-db stats
# or: uv run python scripts/db.py stats

# Register source
rc-db source add \
  --id "SOURCE_ID" \
  --title "TITLE" \
  --type "TYPE" \
  --author "AUTHOR" \
  --year YEAR \
  --url "URL"

# Register claim
rc-db claim add \
  --id "CLAIM_ID" \
  --text "CLAIM_TEXT" \
  --type "[TYPE]" \
  --domain "DOMAIN" \
  --evidence-level "EX" \
  --credence 0.XX \
  --source-ids "SOURCE_ID"

# Search claims
rc-db search "query" --limit 10

# Get specific record
rc-db claim get CLAIM_ID
rc-db source get SOURCE_ID

# List records
rc-db claim list --domain TECH
rc-db source list --type ARTICLE
```

### Validation

```bash
rc-validate
# or: uv run python scripts/validate.py
```

### Export

```bash
rc-export yaml claims -o claims.yaml
rc-export markdown source SOURCE_ID -o source.md
```

---

## Update README (REQUIRED)

After registration and validation, update the data project's README.md:

### 1. Add Source Analyses Table Entry

**Edit `$PROJECT_ROOT/README.md` now.** Find the "Source Analyses" table and insert a new row:

```markdown
| YYYY-MM-DD | [Title](analysis/sources/<source-id>.md) | `[REVIEWED]` | Brief summary |
```

Insert at the **top** of the table (below header row), keeping entries reverse-chronological.

### 2. Update Stats Tables

Run the stats update script to refresh claim/source counts:

```bash
# From the realitycheck framework directory
scripts/update-readme-stats.sh "$PROJECT_ROOT"
# or: bash scripts/update-readme-stats.sh "$(dirname "$REALITYCHECK_DATA")"
```

This updates the "Current Status" and "Claim Domains" tables automatically.

---

## Commit and Push (REQUIRED)

**You MUST commit and push after every successful analysis.** This is not optional.

```bash
# From the data project root
cd "$(dirname "$REALITYCHECK_DATA")"

# Stage all changes
git add data/ analysis/ tracking/ README.md claims/ reference/

# Commit with descriptive message
git commit -m "data: add [source-id] - [brief description]"

# Push to remote
git push
```

**Do not stop until changes are committed and pushed.** The analysis is incomplete without version control.

---

## Continuation Mode

When using `--continue` on an existing analysis:

1. **Find existing analysis**: Look for `analysis/sources/[source-id].md`
2. **Read current state**: Load the existing analysis and registered claims
3. **Iterate, don't overwrite**: Add to the existing analysis rather than replacing it
4. **Focus areas**:
   - Extract claims that were skipped or noted as "TODO"
   - Deepen specific sections (more counterfactuals, stronger steelman)
   - Add evidence that was found after initial analysis
   - Address questions or gaps identified in the original pass
   - Cross-reference with newly added claims in the database
5. **Preserve content**: Append new sections, update claim counts, note what changed

---

## Related Skills

- `$search`
- `$validate`
- `$stats`


---
Source attribution: David-Li0406
Original project: https://github.com/David-Li0406/meta-skill-evloving/blob/ca3a335628981df10c36e00cb9850df2c247ab9a/skill-flow/data/skills-refined-36k/skillsmp/check/SKILL.md
License: Apache-2.0
License information: https://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
Original upstream instructions; downloaded from Mega AI Hub.

## Upstream license notice

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   distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
   WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
   See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
   limitations under the License.



# Mega AI Hub resource metadata

Creator / publisher: David-Li0406
Original project: https://github.com/David-Li0406/meta-skill-evloving/blob/ca3a335628981df10c36e00cb9850df2c247ab9a/skill-flow/data/skills-refined-36k/skillsmp/check/SKILL.md
Attribution basis: Source repository record

Fields of work: Data & Analytics, Education & Research
Roles: Data Analyst, Market Research Analyst, Researcher
Specialties: API
Tools: Lancedb
Country applicability: Country not specified
Classification basis: Source catalog labels
Instruction SHA-256: c762415f05445671b756f463a1d22f6ec0e19eb88ce2c0462ecf7311c4eac912
