--- name: portfolio-risk-warning-7459d4e51cdb description: | 持仓风险提示助手，专用于识别和提示客户持仓中的各类风险。 以下情况请主动触发此技能： - 用户需要识别客户持仓风险点（集中度、流动性、信用等） - 用户描述持仓情况，问"这个持仓有什么风险" - 用户准备风险提示材料、客户风险告知 - 用户问"客户持仓风险大吗""需要提示什么风险" - 市场波动大时，用户需要批量提示客户风险 - 持仓产品出现重大风险事件（违约、大幅回撤等） 输出清晰的风险识别和提示建议，含风险等级、影响程度、应对措施。 不要等用户明确说"风险提示"——只要涉及持仓风险识别、评估、提示，就应主动启动此技能。 --- # 持仓风险提示助手 **核心定位**：识别、评估、提示客户持仓中的各类风险，帮助投顾及时、准确、合规地进行风险告知。 --- ## 风险分类框架 ### 一、市场风险 | 风险类型 | 识别方法 | 预警信号 | |---------|---------|---------| | 系统性风险 | 市场整体估值、经济周期 | 市场 PE 历史高位、经济下行 | | 行业风险 | 行业景气度、政策变化 | 行业政策收紧、需求下滑 | | 风格风险 | 风格暴露（大小盘、价值成长） | 风格极端偏离、风格切换 | ### 二、信用风险 | 风险类型 | 识别方法 | 预警信号 | |---------|---------|---------| | 债券违约 | 持仓债券评级、发行人财务 | 评级下调、财务恶化、负面舆情 | | 信托违约 | 底层资产、融资方资质 | 融资方资金链紧张、项目逾期 | | 私募风险 | 管理人资质、策略风险 | 管理人负面、策略失效 | ### 三、流动性风险 | 风险类型 | 识别方法 | 预警信号 | |---------|---------|---------| | 产品流动性 | 赎回限制、封闭期 | 长期封闭、大额赎回限制 | | 资产流动性 | 持仓证券成交量、市值 | 小市值、低成交量 | | 客户流动性 | 客户资金需求、持仓变现能力 | 短期用款需求大、持仓难变现 | ### 四、集中度风险 | 风险类型 | 识别方法 | 预警线 | |---------|---------|-------| | 单一产品集中 | 单一产品占比 | >30% | | 单一行业集中 | 单一行业占比 | >40% | | 单一管理人集中 | 同一管理人产品占比 | >50% | | 单一市场集中 | A 股/港股/海外占比 | >70% | ### 五、杠杆风险 | 风险类型 | 识别方法 | 预警信号 | |---------|---------|---------| | 两融杠杆 | 维保比例、融资额度 | 维保比例<150% | | 产品杠杆 | 持仓产品是否含杠杆（分级基金、衍生品） | 杠杆产品占比高 | | 隐性杠杆 | 客户多账户融资、场外配资 | 疑似场外杠杆 | ### 六、合规风险 | 风险类型 | 识别方法 | 预警信号 | |---------|---------|---------| | 适当性不匹配 | 产品风险等级 vs 客户风险等级 | 高风险产品卖给低风险客户 | | 超范围投资 | 持仓超出客户授权范围 | 投资未经客户同意的产品 | | 信息披露 | 风险揭示是否充分 | 未充分揭示产品风险 | --- ## 风险等级评估 ### 风险等级划分 | 等级 | 定义 | 应对要求 | |------|------|---------| | 🔴 高危 | 可能造成重大损失，需立即处理 | 立即通知客户，采取紧急措施 | | 🟠 高 | 可能造成较大损失，需尽快处理 | 3 日内通知客户，制定应对方案 | | 🟡 中 | 可能造成一定损失，需关注 | 1 周内通知客户，持续监控 | | 🟢 低 | 风险可控，常规监控 | 定期检视，无需特别行动 | ### 风险影响程度评估 | 维度 | 评估方法 | |------|---------| | 损失幅度 | 潜在损失占持仓比例 | | 发生概率 | 基于历史数据、当前情况判断 | | 时间紧迫性 | 风险爆发的时间窗口 | | 可控性 | 是否有有效应对措施 | --- ## 风险提示场景专项 ### 场景 1：市场大幅波动 **触发条件**：市场单日涨跌>3%，或连续多日大幅波动 **提示框架**： 1. 市场情况说明：波动幅度、原因 2. 客户持仓影响：估算盈亏、维保比例变化（两融客户） 3. 风险评估：风险等级 4. 建议：持有/减仓/对冲 **提示话术**： > [客户姓名] 总，今日市场大幅 [上涨/下跌][X]%，主要受 [原因] 影响。您的持仓预计 [浮盈/浮亏] 约 [X]%。当前风险等级：[中/高]。建议：[具体建议]。市场波动期间，建议保持冷静，不要盲目操作。有疑问随时联系我。 ### 场景 2：持仓产品风险事件 **触发条件**：持仓产品出现违约、大幅回撤、管理人负面等 **提示框架**： 1. 事件说明：发生了什么、影响范围 2. 对客户的直接影响：持仓金额、占比、潜在损失 3. 产品方应对：公告内容、应对措施 4. 建议：持有/赎回/转换 **提示话术**： > [客户姓名] 总，您持有的 [产品名称] 出现 [风险事件]。您持有金额 [X] 万，占您总资产 [X]%。目前 [产品方应对措施]。我们建议：[具体建议]。我们将持续跟踪，有最新进展第一时间通知您。 ### 场景 3：集中度风险预警 **触发条件**：单一产品/行业占比超过预警线 **提示框架**： 1. 集中度情况：当前占比、预警线 2. 风险分析：集中度高的潜在影响 3. 建议：分散配置的具体方案 **提示话术**： > [客户姓名] 总，您的持仓中 [XX 产品/行业] 占比 [X]%，超过我们建议的 [X]% 预警线。集中度较高可能导致 [风险]。建议：[分散方案]。您可以考虑 [具体操作]。 ### 场景 4：两融客户维保比例预警 **触发条件**：维保比例<150% **提示框架**： 1. 当前维保比例 2. 距离预警线/平仓线的空间 3. 追保要求：金额、时间 4. 不处理的后果 **提示话术**：（见 portfolio-diagnosis-margin 技能） ### 场景 5：产品到期/封闭期结束 **触发条件**：产品即将到期或封闭期结束 **提示框架**： 1. 产品到期信息：时间、金额 2. 续作/赎回选择 3. 市场情况分析 4. 建议：续作/赎回/转换 --- ## 输出模板 ### 模板 A：风险提示函（正式） ``` # 风险提示函 客户：[姓名] 日期：[YYYY-MM-DD] ## 风险事项 [风险事件/情况说明] ## 对您持仓的影响 - 涉及产品：[产品名称] - 持有金额：[X] 万 - 占比：[X]% - 潜在影响：[说明] ## 风险等级 [🔴/🟠/🟡/🟢] [高危/高/中/低] ## 建议措施 1. [建议 1] 2. [建议 2] ## 后续安排 - [跟踪计划] - [联系方式] 风险提示人：[姓名] 日期：[YYYY-MM-DD] ``` ### 模板 B：微信风险提示（简洁） ``` 【风险提示】 [客户姓名] 总，提示您关注： ⚠️ 风险事项：[简要说明] 📊 对您的影响： - 涉及持仓：[X] 万 💡 建议：[简要建议] 详情可电话沟通：[联系方式] ``` ### 模板 C：批量风险提示（多客户） ``` # 批量风险提示清单 日期：[YYYY-MM-DD] 风险事项：[说明] | 客户 | 涉及产品 | 持有金额 | 风险等级 | 建议行动 | 联系人 | |------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-------| | [客户 1] | [产品] | [X] 万 | [等级] | [行动] | [姓名] | | [客户 2] | [产品] | [X] 万 | [等级] | [行动] | [姓名] | 统一话术：[参考话术] ``` --- ## 风险提示合规要求 ### 必须提示的情形 - 产品出现重大风险事件 - 客户持仓集中度超过预警线 - 两融客户维保比例触及预警线 - 产品风险等级与客户不匹配 - 市场大幅波动影响客户持仓 ### 提示方式要求 - 重要风险：书面提示（邮件/微信文字） - 紧急风险：电话 + 书面 - 一般风险：微信/定期报告 ### 记录留存要求 - 提示时间、方式、内容 - 客户反馈 - 后续跟进情况 --- ## 使用建议 1. **及时性**：风险事件发生后及时提示 2. **准确性**：风险评估要准确，不夸大不缩小 3. **可操作性**：建议要具体、可执行 4. **留痕**：所有提示留存记录 5. **跟进**：提示后跟进客户行动 --- Source attribution: aifinlab Original project: https://github.com/aifinlab/FinClaw/blob/9e62862d1412157fa03ffd1f0b74969dcf0ed66c/skills/wzy/portfolio-risk-warning/SKILL.md License: Apache-2.0 License information: https://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0 Original upstream instructions; downloaded from Mega AI Hub. ## Upstream license notice Apache License Version 2.0, January 2004 http://www.apache.org/licenses/ TERMS AND CONDITIONS FOR USE, REPRODUCTION, AND DISTRIBUTION 1. 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