--- name: prediction-market-arbitrage-440652f8cd3c description: Find and analyze arbitrage opportunities across prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Use when you need to match equivalent markets, compare prices, and verify whether a spread looks actionable. license: MIT compatibility: Designed for Agent Skills compatible clients such as OpenClaw, Claude Code, Hermes, and GitHub-backed skill catalogs. Requires system binaries curl, python3, environment variables AISA_API_KEY and internet access to api.aisa.one. metadata: author: AIsa version: 1.0.0 homepage: https://aisa.one repository: https://github.com/baofeng-tech/agent-skills tags: market,prediction platforms: agentskills.io,agentskill.sh,github primary_env: AISA_API_KEY allowed-tools: Read Bash Grep --- # Prediction Market Arbitrage ⚖️ Find and analyze arbitrage opportunities across prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. This skill helps agents: - find matching markets across platforms - compare current prices - inspect orderbook depth and liquidity - judge whether an apparent spread may be actionable Powered by AIsa with a single `AISA_API_KEY`. ## Use when - You want to find the Kalshi or Polymarket equivalent of a market on another platform. - You want to compare implied probabilities across platforms for the same event. - You want to check whether a price gap is large enough to investigate as a possible arbitrage. - You want to verify liquidity before treating a spread as actionable. ## Compatibility Works with any [agentskills.io](https://agentskills.io)-compatible harness, including: - **Claude Code** and **Claude** - **OpenAI Codex** - **Cursor** - **Gemini CLI** - **OpenCode**, **Goose**, **OpenClaw**, **Hermes** - and other harnesses that implement the [Agent Skills specification](https://agentskills.io/specification) Requires Python 3, a POSIX shell, and `AISA_API_KEY` from [aisa.one](https://aisa.one). ## Quick start ```bash export AISA_API_KEY="your-key" ``` ## Example requests ### Detect price discrepancies ```text "Find the current price difference for the US election market between Polymarket and Kalshi." ``` ### Match cross-platform markets ```text "Find the Kalshi equivalent for this Polymarket sports event." ``` ### Track arbitrage spreads ```text "Monitor the price spread for the upcoming NBA game across all supported prediction markets." ``` ### Analyze orderbook depth ```text "Check the orderbook depth on both platforms to see if the arbitrage opportunity is actionable." ``` ## How to look up IDs Most endpoints require an ID from the `/markets` or `/matching-markets` responses. Query markets first, then pass the relevant ID into downstream endpoints. 1. **Polymarket `token_id`**: Query `/polymarket/markets`, find `side_a.id` or `side_b.id` in the response, then use that value in the market price and orderbook endpoints. 2. **Kalshi `market_ticker`**: Query `/kalshi/markets`, find `market_ticker` in the response, then use that value in the market price and orderbook endpoints. ## Core capabilities ### 1. Find matching markets The first step in arbitrage analysis is finding the same event on multiple platforms. #### Match by event ticker or slug ```bash # Find equivalent markets across platforms using a Polymarket slug curl -X GET "https://api.aisa.one/apis/v1/matching-markets/sports?polymarket_market_slug={polymarket_market_slug}" \ -H "Authorization: Bearer $AISA_API_KEY" # Or find equivalent markets using a Kalshi event ticker curl -X GET "https://api.aisa.one/apis/v1/matching-markets/sports?kalshi_event_ticker={kalshi_event_ticker}" \ -H "Authorization: Bearer $AISA_API_KEY" ``` #### Match sports by date ```bash # Find all matching sports markets across platforms for a specific date curl -X GET "https://api.aisa.one/apis/v1/matching-markets/sports/{sport}?date={date}" \ -H "Authorization: Bearer $AISA_API_KEY" ``` ### 2. Compare prices Once matching markets are found, fetch the current prices on both platforms to calculate the spread. #### Get Polymarket price ```bash # token_id comes from side_a.id or side_b.id in /polymarket/markets response curl -X GET "https://api.aisa.one/apis/v1/polymarket/market-price/{token_id}" \ -H "Authorization: Bearer $AISA_API_KEY" ``` #### Get Kalshi price ```bash # market_ticker comes from /kalshi/markets response curl -X GET "https://api.aisa.one/apis/v1/kalshi/market-price/{market_ticker}" \ -H "Authorization: Bearer $AISA_API_KEY" ``` ### 3. Verify liquidity A price discrepancy is only actionable if there is enough liquidity to execute the trades. #### Polymarket orderbook ```bash # token_id comes from side_a.id or side_b.id in /polymarket/markets response curl -X GET "https://api.aisa.one/apis/v1/polymarket/orderbooks?token_id={token_id}" \ -H "Authorization: Bearer $AISA_API_KEY" ``` #### Kalshi orderbook ```bash # ticker is the same value as market_ticker from /kalshi/markets response curl -X GET "https://api.aisa.one/apis/v1/kalshi/orderbooks?ticker={ticker}" \ -H "Authorization: Bearer $AISA_API_KEY" ``` ## API endpoints reference ### Cross-platform endpoints | Endpoint | Description | Key Params | |----------|-------------|------------| | `/matching-markets/sports` | Find matching sports markets | `polymarket_market_slug` or `kalshi_event_ticker` | | `/matching-markets/sports/` | Find sports markets by date | `sport`, `date` | ### Price and liquidity endpoints | Endpoint | Description | Key Params | |----------|-------------|------------| | `/polymarket/market-price/` | Get Polymarket price | `token_id`, `at_time` | | `/kalshi/market-price/` | Get Kalshi price | `market_ticker`, `at_time` | | `/polymarket/orderbooks` | Get Polymarket orderbook | `token_id`, `start_time`, `end_time` | | `/kalshi/orderbooks` | Get Kalshi orderbook | `ticker`, `start_time`, `end_time` | ## Important note about cURL placeholders The `{...}` values in the cURL examples are product-level placeholders and must be replaced before execution. Execution constraint: - Before running `curl`, the agent or runner must verify that every `{...}` placeholder has been replaced with a concrete value. - If any placeholder such as `{token_id}`, `{market_ticker}`, `{sport}`, or `{date}` is still present in the final command, do not execute the command. Fail fast and surface a missing-parameter error instead. This constraint is required because a literal brace placeholder may be interpreted by `curl` as URL globbing syntax rather than as plain text. ## Understanding arbitrage and odds - **Prices as probabilities**: Prices are usually shown as decimals. For example, `0.65` means a 65% implied probability. - **Arbitrage opportunity**: An opportunity exists when the combined price of all mutually exclusive outcomes across different platforms is less than `1.0`. For example, if "Yes" is trading at `0.40` on Polymarket and "No" is trading at `0.55` on Kalshi, buying both guarantees a payout of `1.00` for a total cost of `0.95`, before fees and slippage. - **Liquidity check**: Always check the `/orderbooks` endpoints. A price difference might exist, but if the orderbook lacks depth, executing the trade may eliminate the profit. ## Pricing | API | Cost | |-----|------| | Prediction market read query | $0.01 | ## Get started 1. Sign up at [aisa.one](https://aisa.one) 2. Get your API key 3. Add credits (pay-as-you-go) 4. Set the environment variable: `export AISA_API_KEY="your-key"` ## Full API reference See [API Reference](https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/) for complete endpoint documentation. --- Source attribution: baofeng-tech Original project: https://github.com/baofeng-tech/agent-skills/blob/6da0a55a3aa88f283251abe4392be1217ccb7b52/prediction-market-arbitrage/SKILL.md License: MIT License information: https://opensource.org/license/mit Original upstream instructions; downloaded from Mega AI Hub. ## Upstream license notice MIT License Copyright (c) 2026 Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions: The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all copies or substantial portions of the Software. THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM, OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE SOFTWARE. # Mega AI Hub resource metadata Creator / publisher: baofeng-tech Original project: https://github.com/baofeng-tech/agent-skills/blob/6da0a55a3aa88f283251abe4392be1217ccb7b52/prediction-market-arbitrage/SKILL.md Attribution basis: Source repository record Fields of work: Marketing, Sales Roles: Business Development, Growth Marketer, Marketing Analyst Specialties: API, Backend, Design, Word Documents, Frontend, Git Tools: Aisa_Api Country applicability: Country not specified Classification basis: Source catalog labels Instruction SHA-256: 270cebc59c2a9d9808a6b498b629b9bb3947ba54b4a3ebff1251f5ee046b8c72