--- name: prediction-market-arbitrage-zh-955f1e8b67ff description: '通过 AIsa API 发现 Polymarket 和 Kalshi 预测市场的套利机会。扫描体育市场跨平台价差、比较实时赔率、验证订单簿流动性。适用场景：预测市场套利、跨平台价差、体育博彩套利、赔率对比、无风险利润、市场低效。 Use when: the user needs market data, stock analysis, watchlists, or portfolio workflows.' license: MIT compatibility: Designed for Agent Skills compatible clients such as OpenClaw, Claude Code, Hermes, and GitHub-backed skill catalogs. Requires system binaries python3, environment variables AISA_API_KEY and internet access to api.aisa.one. metadata: author: AIsa version: 1.0.0 homepage: https://aisa.one repository: https://github.com/baofeng-tech/agent-skills tags: market,stock,prediction,aisa platforms: agentskills.io,agentskill.sh,github primary_env: AISA_API_KEY allowed-tools: Read Bash Grep --- # 预测市场套利 通过 [AIsa API](https://aisa.one) 发现 [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com) 和 [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com) 之间的套利机会。 ## 配置 ```bash export AISA_API_KEY="your-key" ``` 在 [aisa.one](https://aisa.one) 获取 Key（$0.01/次查询，按量付费）。 ## 工作流程 发现套利机会的步骤： 1. **扫描匹配市场**（`scan` 批量扫描，`match` 分析特定市场） 2. **查看价差** — 工具自动计算跨平台价格差异 3. **验证流动性** — 用 `prediction_market_client.py orderbooks` 检查订单簿深度后再行动 ## 快速示例 ### 扫描某项运动的套利机会 ```bash # 扫描指定日期所有 NBA 市场 — 自动显示价差 python3 scripts/arbitrage_finder.py scan nba --date 2025-04-01 ``` ### 分析特定市场 ```bash # 通过 Polymarket slug python3 scripts/arbitrage_finder.py match --polymarket-slug # 通过 Kalshi ticker python3 scripts/arbitrage_finder.py match --kalshi-ticker ``` ### 行动前验证流动性 ```bash # 检查两边的订单簿深度 python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py polymarket orderbooks --token-id python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py kalshi orderbooks --ticker ``` ## 命令参考 ### arbitrage_finder.py — 自动检测 ```bash python3 scripts/arbitrage_finder.py scan <运动类型> --date [--min-spread <百分比>] [--min-liquidity <美元>] [--json] python3 scripts/arbitrage_finder.py match --polymarket-slug [--min-spread <百分比>] [--min-liquidity <美元>] [--json] python3 scripts/arbitrage_finder.py match --kalshi-ticker [--min-spread <百分比>] [--min-liquidity <美元>] [--json] ``` 支持：`nba`、`nfl`、`mlb`、`nhl`、`soccer`、`tennis`。 ### prediction_market_client.py — 原始市场数据 用于手动价格检查和深入分析。 ```bash # 搜索市场 python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py polymarket markets --search <关键词> --status open --limit 5 python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py kalshi markets --search <关键词> --status open --limit 5 # 获取价格（使用 markets 输出中的 token_id / market_ticker） python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py polymarket price python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py kalshi price # 跨平台体育市场匹配 python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py sports by-date <运动类型> --date python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py sports matching (--polymarket-slug | --kalshi-ticker ) # 订单簿深度 python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py polymarket orderbooks --token-id python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py kalshi orderbooks --ticker ``` ## 理解套利 当不同平台上所有互斥结果的合计成本低于 `1.0` 时，套利机会存在： > Polymarket 上 "Yes" 价格 `0.40` + Kalshi 上 "No" 价格 `0.55` = 成本 `0.95`，保证回报 `1.00` → 5.3% 利润。 务必验证订单簿深度 — 没有流动性的价差无法执行。 ## 安全与权限 **需要：** `AISA_API_KEY` 环境变量。 所有操作均为**只读**，通过 HTTPS GET 请求 `api.aisa.one`。套利价差在本地计算。不执行交易、不连接钱包、除 API Key 外不发送个人数据。每个响应包含 `usage.cost` 和 `usage.credits_remaining`。 完整文档：[AIsa API 参考](https://docs.aisa.one/reference/)。 --- Source attribution: baofeng-tech Original project: https://github.com/baofeng-tech/agent-skills/blob/6da0a55a3aa88f283251abe4392be1217ccb7b52/prediction-market-arbitrage-zh/SKILL.md License: MIT License information: https://opensource.org/license/mit Original upstream instructions; downloaded from Mega AI Hub. ## Upstream license notice MIT License Copyright (c) 2026 Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions: The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all copies or substantial portions of the Software. THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM, OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE SOFTWARE. # Mega AI Hub resource metadata Creator / publisher: baofeng-tech Original project: https://github.com/baofeng-tech/agent-skills/blob/6da0a55a3aa88f283251abe4392be1217ccb7b52/prediction-market-arbitrage-zh/SKILL.md Attribution basis: Source repository record Fields of work: Marketing Roles: Growth Marketer, Marketing Analyst, Product Marketer Specialties: API, Backend, Design, Frontend, Git Tools: Aisa Api Country applicability: Country not specified Classification basis: Source catalog labels Instruction SHA-256: d2b28ac37f595364f0d6724b1ab8f4bf81624f815861c00357ac414f47182779